We Can't Wait for the Apocalypse

Recently the Bloody Shovel blog made an observation that has been previously made on this blog. From his recent post, Primitvism,

If modern civilization collapses, which is a possibility given the relentless action of the worldwide IQ Shredder that we call “modernity”, then humanity will never get a second chance to start industrial civilization ever again. By lack of cheap fuel mostly. We’d be stuck, at best, with a Chinese style “high-level equilibrium trap“, basically the middle ages going on forever.

From this blog's post, Energy Regression: the Looming Apocalypse,

The problem is in acquiring oil. The first time we discovered oil it was quite simple. In places like Pennsylvania it was so accessible it could sometimes be found right at the surface. (Which is why we see oil brands such as Pennzoil and Quaker State). As we used the oil to power society we were able to develop increasingly sophisticated techniques to get the less accessible oil. Now we're fracking and running deep-sea oil rigs. There is no way a primitive society can get to that oil. And there's no way a primitive society can build solar panels or nuclear plants. If society fails now, it fails forever. The next big energy regression might well be permanent.

No one truly wants  to endure a collapse scenario, but many see it as both inevitable and necessary to realign society with reality. It's comparable to the stock market. Everyone knows there will be a crash eventually, and that the markets can keep running in fantasyland forever. Many of us with a survivalist bent imagine that all we have to do is prepare to bunker down for the inevitable calamity, let harsh reality clear out the limp-wristed invalids that permeate our society, and then the hardy folk can re-establish order based on an honest understanding of the human condition. A society build on blood, sweat, and brains.

The energy regression throws a monkey wrench in everything. We seem to be at an impasse. We can't save society, we can only respond appropriately as the natural cycle of growth and decay ebbs. But we must save society, or it is lost forever. Sure, we could live primitive lives. Many of use would even prefer such a scenario. But what does that mean in the long term? Humans live in a world of no advancement, stuck on this rock until the sun eventually destroys it? Okay, it doesn't sound that awful, but it doesn't seem right either. We were meant for something more than that. The idyllic shire life is for hobbits. Humans need to be working towards something.

However we reclaim society, it will not be through debate or the political process, but through strength. Either we will finds ourselves in an environment where the strong gain a survival advantage (the natural way), or we start killing our opponents once we believe we can do so without being killed ourselves. The former is morally superior, but the latter is there if you need it. The first scenario is something of a balancing act. We know that the longer we wait for the corrective action, the more intense it will be. If the apocalypse comes too soon, it won't do it's job of cleaning house and the problems will not be properly fixed. Wait too long and the apocalypse wipes out everything and we find ourselves rebuilding from a primitive state. But we've passed the technological threshold where we could simply hit the societal reset button. We'll never get back to an era of abundant fossil fuels. Ever. Even if we push past our petro dependency we face the same conundrum. An energy regressed society cannot rebuild fusion reactors, no matter how smart and capable the people.

Think of the enormity of our situation. If we screw this up too bad, we screw it up forever. That has never been the case before. The modern society cannot survive mass irrationality. I wonder if this isn't a universal predicament. The species succeeds over its environment, but then grows so soft it decays and destroys itself. Is this why we've not encountered intelligent alien life?