Tuesday, March 20, 2018

Saudi Crown Prince Visits the White House

The President received Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman today.


A few thoughts...
  • While friendly, there does appear to be a bit of tension. Trump speaks easily, but also is red in the face. It would seem that they both find the public meeting to be very significant.
  • Trump highlighted massive sales of US military equipment to Saudi Arabia, as well as substantial Arab investments in the US. Normally we wouldn't think highly of this, as Saudi Arabia has been a despotic regime and lately a terrible ally to the US. However, under the new leadership ISIS has fallen, who previously had received indirect support from SA. That fact, coupled with Salman's agreement to Trump's insistence that there will be zero tolerance for the funding of terrorism, would indicate that perhaps a new leaf has been turned.
  • The Crown Prince displays great respect for Trump. He's also quite young for his important position, and a bit green, judging at his frequent facial tells in response to Trump's speech.
  • Trump doesn't really know anything about military hardware. He is much more interested in the dollar amounts than the particular capabilities being sold.
  • The Trump leverage game is in full force. Why is Trump siding so heavily with Saudi Arabia in the cold war between them and Iran? Because he already has leverage with Saudi Arabia. They depend on us for military support, and the US controls the trade of their major export. (see more). If Trump wants to solve the Middle East political turmoil (and he definitely wants to be the guy that solved it) he needs leverage over all the major players. Siding heavily with Saudi Arabia tips the balance of power towards them and away from Iran, which translates into leverage over Iran. What a world of difference from Obama's program of diplomacy by dictate and bribe! Trump says: The Iran deal is coming up. It’s probably another month or so, and you’re going to see what I do. Expect miracles.
  • He says he'll meet soon with Putin, largely to discuss the ongoing arms race between the US and Russia, and that, whatever the outcome, the US must remain far more powerful than anyone else. That may seem like a strange way to approach arms reduction talks, but again he's establishing leverage. He's setting the expectation that Russia will have to come to the table with a strong offer to get the reduction of US arms spending that they are hoping for. This will certainly mean making certain geopolitical concessions that Trump desires.

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