I tend to like Noam Chomsky's take on the Vietnam War. It's controversial, and, yes, he's a lefty who often says politically disagreeable things, but this still rings true to me. He says that Vietnam was actually a strategic success. The overall goal of the US at the time was to increase it's reach of global hegemony while reducing that of our Russian adversaries. The preferred outcome of the US was, of course, the installation of a puppet government that would cater to US geopolitical objectives. That was not the outcome of the Vietnam war, which many regard as a rare and embarrassing defeat for the US military. Still, Chomsky argues that the war was a strategic success because it demonstrated the punishment the US might inflict on countries that don't fall in line. While our boys paid a heavy price over there, the devastation inflicted on the Vietnamese (and others in Indochina as the war spilled out) was far worse. Vietnam was meant to send a message to anyone who might dare resist. There is also some aspect of scorched-earth warfare. Okay commies, you win, you get the smoldering wastelands. Watch out for land mines. Perhaps the primary objective was missed, but overall the operation was a strategic success for one superpower battling it out with another.
Fox News reports today that Rosenstein informed Trump that he is not a target of the Cohen "investigation." (I put investigation in quotes, because a police action that raids the home of a citizen and almost immediately starts leaking seized information to the press can hardly be considered a professional operation.) This follows on reports earlier this month that Mueller informed Trump that he is not a criminal target in that investigation. And of course, all of this follows the assurances that former FBI Director Comey made to Trump that he was not a target of that investigation.
No, Trump isn't a target of any investigation. But anyone who joins his team is subject to investigation and perjury traps (Flynn). Anyone who campaigned with him may be prosecuted for any crime committed present or past (Manafort). Anyone who provides legal counsel may have their homes raided based on the word of the media's favorite prostitute (literally) of the week (Cohen). Trump isn't a target of these police actions, but everyone around him just so happens to be.
It would seem that Trump is effectively but not literally under investigation. They really want to get him on a criminal prosecution, without doubt. That is the preferred outcome. After a year and a half, it's fairly evident that there is no legal case to be made. However, that doesn't mean they can't work towards their overall goal just as well. Call it scorched-earth politics. If they can smash his team into a thousand pieces, cow anyone competent from ever wanting to join, and dig up every dirty secret of gossip bit and blast it out through full-spectrum propaganda ops, then Trump can have the presidency. If he is never charged with a crime, but his presidency becomes isolated and powerless, well that is strategic victory enough.
But even more than that, this all sends a message. Vietnam didn't fall in line to the prevailing order, and were punished. Trump doesn't fall in line to the prevailing order, and the deep state are eager to show us what happens. Trump is strong and can take the fight. He probably even enjoys it. But he's unusual. Most men cannot bear such an onslaught. Good men know their lives will become hell if they reject the political hegemony, so they either surrender to the demands made upon them, or they don't even attempt to gain power at all. The dynamics of Vietnam and Trump are the same. He who gets out of line must be destroyed, or the rest will follow. The Domino Theory turns out to be true...it was just misrepresented.
It has been clear since the release of the Nunes memo that these criminal investigations are a sham. They are sold to the public as criminal investigations against Trump. Not literally, but that is the implied message. It is just cover to permit them to grab whatever information they want. The US boasts the most expansive intel capabilities the world has ever seen, and it's engaged in petty opposition research. The Nunes memo makes this clear. The FISA warrants were so shoddily constructed that it's doubtful the collected data could be used in a court of law. I really think that's worth repeating. The FISA warrants were so shoddily constructed that it's doubtful the collected data could be used in a court of law. I had arguments with some liberals about this. As a Trump hater, you should be very concerned that the whole criminal case is based on legally inadmissable evidence. But that's the whole thing. The goal of the data collection wasn't for a solid prosecution. The data collection was the goal itself.
Other examples offer support. It is unlikely that anything obtained in the Cohen raid could be used against Trump. Even if there is serious evidence against him for an actual crime, it's all at risk of being thrown out in court for violating attorney-client privilege. Look at the Flynn case. Charges, plea deal...but no sentencing. Delayed at Mueller's request. We don't know why, but have to suspect that the evidence for the case is now suspicious enough that the conviction could be overturned. We also must consider that Trump's team was being spied on before the approval of the Carter Page warrant. None of that is likely to be admissible either. Hence the laundering of the intel through a hired research firm.
Legally, the witch hunt has not turned up anything of substance. The real damage then should have been the selective leaking of gathered intel. But even that has been of limited effect. Despite their federally funded opposition research and media leaks, Trump's approval stands at 51%, by their own polls. The biggest leak was of Trump's private conversations with foreign leaders (an incredible act of treason for which the perpetrators should be hanged). They must have thought they really had him when he was hostile to the Australian Prime Minister! Except Trump supporters and moderate Americans weren't too concerned. He can tell the Australian Prime Minister to fuck off for all we care. We sent him in to wage war, not to sip tea. All they've done is demonstrate that the president is legally clean and pretty well does what he says he will do. Come 2020, he will be the most highly vetted political candidate in world history.
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