US Elects New Venezuelan President

Venezuela is shaping up to be the next global hotspot. From the Nassau Guardian,

Last Wednesday Juan Guaidó, the president of Venezuela’s National Assembly, took an informal oath of office and declared himself the country’s interim president. In a choreographed response the United States and a number of other hemispheric countries including Canada, Brazil and Argentina recognized him as such.

The response of other nations was significantly more nuanced, calling instead for a political process that leads to free and credible elections. Russia, China and Turkey however, indicated their support for the Maduro government and objected to external interference in the country’s internal affairs.

In contrast, Caribbean nations, including some of those in the Lima Group who voted recently at the OAS not to recognize Nicolas Maduro’s second term in office as Venezuela’s president, said nothing about Guaidó. Instead they have called for a rapid regional and international dialogue involving all actors to preserve the democratic process.

What happens next is far from certain. Washington’s unprecedented decision to recognize an alternative government to the one that holds de facto power has set in train a hard to predict range of outcomes that may turn a humanitarian disaster into geopolitical conflict.

Washington's decision to officially recognize a usurper is perhaps unprecedented, but it's not that unprecedented. For most of our early history, US policy was to recognize the de facto power of a foreign land, rather than the government we'd prefer. This policy dates all the way back to George Washington himself. For at least the last half century, clandestine (and not-so clandestine) elements of our government have routinely engaged in aiding various rival factions they wished to see in power, particularly in Latin America, the Middle East, and - in the last election - in the United States itself. It's hard to call diplomatic recognition of Guaido unprecedented after, say, Barrack Obama declared loss of confidence in the de facto governments of Libya and Syria, while arming the opposition forces.

Still, the official recognition of a particular faction that is not in power is a clean break from the old tradition. Perhaps they hope it will aid a smooth transition, so that governance is transferred smoothly rather than descending into civil war between numerous factions. Recognizing preferred - rather than de facto - foreign governments robs those nations of self-determination (painful as the process can be) and corners the United States into a risky morality position. What if this guy Guaido ends up butchering a hundred thousand women and children? Blame will fall on Donald Trump and the other foreign leaders who endorsed him.

The Bank of England has refused to release over one billion dollars worth of Venezuelan gold held in its vaults, which was previously used as collateral for international loans. They fear that Maduro intends to embezzle the national assets for himself. It's an interesting dilemma of ownership. If not the government, who in Venezuela can be trusted to take possession of the bullion on behalf of the nation? Perhaps they should divvy it up into small, equal portions for each of the citizens.

If you're a third-world national leader, who do you trust with your assets? The western world is prone to virtue signaling and endless foreign meddling. If I was to set up my own little country (been thinking about it), I'd rather trust my national endowment to the Chinese or Russians than any country that might be pressured by the United States to monetarily enforce the public morality code of the day. Frankly, there's room for caution even as a citizen. Today it's Venezuela, next week domestic wrong-thinkers will find their funds are being retained indefinitely by the bank for national security concerns.