Prediction Confirmation: College Racism Hoax

A week ago in May Day Violence I wrote:

Olaf College was shut down yesterday by racial activists. The actions were in response to a racist note left on a black student's car. There is no proof, of course, that the message is genuine. In fact, we might apply a little bit of logic to the issue. There have no been over a hundred and twenty fake acts of white racism in America since Trump's election. In comparison, there has only been one genuine instance that I'm aware of. So judging on the evidence at hand, it is a hundred times more likely that the note was faked by leftists. And now they're using that as an excuse for misconduct. A rule of thumb is this: if an alleged incident has less than a 1% chance of being true but you use it to incite mob rule, then maybe you're just looking for any excuse to engage in that behavior, to the point of fabricating it yourself.

The argument was pretty straight-forward. Based on prior evidence I determined that in general there was around a 1% chance that any vandalism appearing to come from white racists was actually valid. Because liberals are pro-science, they must have determined for themselves what the causal probabilities were based on the same evidence. By ignoring that evidence they indicated they were merely waiting for any excuse to act out.

At any rate, my claim that the attack was almost certainly a hoax has been validated, as the "victim" (identity protected) has admitted to the forgery. While I didn't mention it here, I was quite convinced the note was a forgery for reasons outside the general probabilities. Here was the text of the letter.

I am so glad that you are leaving soon. One less nigger this school has to deal with. You have spoken up too much. You will change nothing. Shut up or I will shut you up.

This is written like someone faking a note. Their own psychology is projected into it. "You have spoken up too much, you will change nothing." Does that sound like something a white supremacist would say? A white supremacist would be very unhappy with our current culture, and thus wouldn't think to be opposed to change. It sounds like something a Ku Klux Klan member from the early-middle 20th century would say. The letter has the mindset of the social justice warrior, convinced that the world is horribly oppressive, and evil forces are conspiring to keep it that way. It's like a caricature of how the SJW sees the world. The believe they are agents of positive change in the world and evil [racists|sexist|homphobes|...] are working to stop them.

The campus saw several fake racist incidents in the past few months, many with the same handwriting. They were all fake. Everything about the left is fake. Fake news, fake science, fake racism. Well, not all the racism. This was the black students' response to fake racism.

Hey look, real racism! I'll venture a second prediction. None of the instigators here, either of the fake or the real racism, will suffer any consequences of significance. I'll make a third prediction too: if a white student ever gets caught crafting racist notes or signs on the order of "fuck your black [whatever]", they will be expelled, possibly charged, and blasted throughout mainstream media, and their identity will not be protected.