Prediction Failures

A few predictions I made don't seem to be panning out.

In Trump Traps & Integrity I put forth the notion that Trump was deliberately conditioning his opponents with his Twitter feed so they'd be more likely to take "bait" whenever it is laid out there. I don't follow his Twitter, but I do tend to see the more significant ones in social media. While I can't provide an acute analysis, I've not seen anything to indicate this strategy is in play. Even if it was, it would be difficult to prove anyway.

In a similar vein, I predicted in Saturating the Media Bandwidth that Trump's initial executive blitz would be a cyclical pattern we'd see that would attempt to control the media narrative. While it's possible there is a longer cycle, there is no indication that the Trump team is engaged in temporal control of the media. Occam's razor indicates that the initial blitz was merely the Team starting on their agenda from day 1, as promised. However it still leaves an interesting concept for political theory. If rogue campaigns are not intentionally operating to outmaneuver the establishment media's OODA loop, they should be.

Finally, I made a prediction on social media in a group dedicated to discussion of r/K political theory. In regards to a story of immigrants in Sweden burning something like 8 grocery delivery trucks, I put forth the theory that what we were seeing was potentially the beginning of a direct attack by the foreigners on the resource supplies of their hosts. I predicted we would see more similar incidents. No evidence of that has surfaced. At this point it seems more likely that it was just a random act of lawlessness.